0 ITEM
Rise by more than 10%! Basf production warning, a dozen raw material production capacity setback
BASF has spoken, and may have to cut production!
Beixi-1 "broken", what did it bring to Europe?
The downstream "raw material shortage" is coming, and the raw materials will rise again!
Urgent! BASF said: or further production cuts!
The supply of Beixi-1 was cut off. Originally, it was thought that it would only be repaired for 3 days, but it turned into an "indefinitely cut off supply".
This natural gas "giant earthquake" first targeted the European industry. If the picture is not here, BASF will let it go. Recently, BASF said that after Russia suspended the transmission of natural gas to Germany through its main natural gas pipeline, the company is closely watching the natural gas market, such as Production may be cut further if needed.
As a chemical giant, BASF is one of the largest natural gas users in Germany. 60% of the natural gas it purchases is used as energy for production, and 40% is used as raw material for the production of chemicals. The shortage of natural gas will have a direct impact on its production!
Supply at any time! Europe is "turbulent", and raw materials are difficult to guarantee!
Why is natural gas so important to the chemical industry? - One third of the energy used in chemical production in Europe depends on natural gas! Taking Germany as an example, the chemical industry in Germany ranks first in Europe, and the industry with the highest proportion of gas consumption in Germany is industry. If the supply of natural gas is cut off, the industry most likely to cut gas consumption is definitely the industry, which will affect the supply of various raw materials.
As the world's second largest chemical production base, Europe plays an important role in the supply side of chemicals such as polyurethane, vitamins, potassium chloride, methionine, and MDI. The energy market is facing a severe test, and the supply of raw materials is also facing a huge crisis!
There is no doubt that Europe has been caught in a natural gas crisis. The longer the natural gas supply shortage problem continues, the greater the impact on the global supply of chemical commodities. BASF’s production cut is only a microcosm of the current situation of the European chemical industry. Solved, more companies may announce production cuts in the future!
Please also pay attention to the production capacity in Europe and be alert to the risk of raw material supply!
The production capacity of more than a dozen raw materials has been frustrated! Downstream price surge detonated!
Picture Many chemical raw materials in my country still rely on imports, and my country is not immune to the emergency of natural gas in Europe. The impact of this natural gas supply crisis has spread to China, involving TDI, MDI, caprolactam, pure benzene, styrene, propylene oxide, ethylene oxide , PC and other products.
▶ Ethylene and EVA: In 2021, the total global ethylene production capacity will reach 210 million tons per year, and the consumption will be about 197 million tons; of which, the ethylene production capacity in Europe will account for over 11%. In the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, European ethane crackers cut production and ethylene supply was limited. Affected by the reduction of ethylene production and the limited supply of vinyl acetate, downstream EVA production in Western Europe may be under pressure. It is expected that my country's photovoltaic-grade EVA supply and demand structure will maintain a tight balance in 2022-2023.
▶Propylene oxide: Europe's propylene oxide production capacity accounts for 25% of the world's total. Under the energy crisis, the supply and demand of high-energy-consuming propylene oxide will undergo important changes, and the price is expected to rise. At present, domestic manufacturers want to increase the supply of products in Europe, and the domestic market cannot supply them normally.
▶ Vitamins and methionine: European vitamin A accounts for 45% of global production capacity, vitamin E accounts for 33%, vitamin B2 accounts for 40%, and methionine accounts for 30%. The cost of European enterprises is under pressure, the domestic methionine market has risen slightly, the global VE factories are operating very low, and the supply of enterprises is tight. It is expected that the VA market is expected to gradually bottom out and rebound in the second half of the year.
▶ TDI: The global annual production capacity of toluene diisocyanate TDI is about 3.467 million tons, and the production capacity in Europe accounts for about 24.52%. Among them, the production capacity of 900,000 tons of TDI has been suspended due to force majeure, and the possibility of recovery in winter is extremely small. my country's TDI production capacity accounts for 40%, and there are already domestic manufacturers who want to increase product supply in Europe.
▶ MDI: In 2021, the global MDI production capacity of diphenylmethane diisocyanate will be about 9.89 million tons, and the production capacity in Europe will account for about 28.92%. At this stage, the cost of electricity and natural gas in European factories is 5 to 8 times that of Chinese factories, and the export volume has continued to rise in recent years. If production is stopped again, the supply may be reduced.
▶ Soda ash: The production capacity accounts for 21% of the world, and the domestic soda ash operating rate is 73%. The downstream demand for soda ash in China is low, and the overall operating rate is declining. Currently, there is a small demand for replenishment.
▶ Oxalic acid: Western Europe's adipic acid production capacity accounts for 17.8% of the world's total, and the shortage of natural gas will have an impact on its important raw material, hydrogen. The supply-side impact of adipic acid brought about by the shortage of natural gas in the future will be transmitted to the PA66 industry along the industrial chain.
▶ PVC: PVC production capacity in Europe accounts for about 15%. Against the background of ethylene production reduction, PVC may usher in a bottom-up opportunity.
▶ Titanium dioxide: The production capacity in Europe is 18.2%. At present, the production capacity of titanium dioxide in Europe has dropped to 20% of the total load. The shortage of natural gas and insufficient fuel affect the production of titanium dioxide.
▶▶In this way, it seems that September is not about to usher in an "order wave", but a "raw material shortage" in the upstream. Some chemical raw materials are already in short supply, and prices have begun to rise!
Raw material prices
▶Ethylene oxide: Spot prices have generally risen; from 6,300 yuan / ton on August 6, it has risen to 7,000 yuan / ton, and the price has increased by more than 11% month-on-month.
▶Ethanolamine: The spot is limited, and the low-end is reluctant to sell; The price increase of raw materials in the downstream market is in the range of 50-200 yuan / ton.
▶Phenol: The market is on a strong upward trend. As of September 7, the price of high-end phenol in the East China market exceeded the 10,000 yuan mark, rising to 10,300 yuan/ton.
▶Propylene: The market price has also increased significantly. On the 6th, the mainstream of Shandong's propylene market was 7150-7150 yuan / ton.
▶Ethanol: From the perspective of the market, on the 6th, the price of ethanol purchased from downstream major chemical industries in East China increased by 30-50 yuan/ton compared with the previous batch.
▶The focus of domestic isopropyl alcohol market discussions continues to rise. The reference negotiation intention of the isopropyl alcohol market in Jiangsu is at 6800-6900 yuan / ton, the available spot is tight, traders are reluctant to sell at a low price, and the transaction is just needed. The reference for isopropyl alcohol market negotiation in South China is 7000-7100 yuan / ton, the amount of output outside the factory is limited, and the price of acetone in the upstream is firm, and the holder offers a firm price.
▶Methanol: The market continues to rebound. In the North China market, the negotiated price of methanol market in Jining, Shandong has risen to 2680-2700 yuan/ton for factory withdrawal; the mainstream transaction price in Linfen, Shanxi has risen to 2400-2430 yuan/ton for factory withdrawal;
