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"Carbon peak, carbon neutral" to avoid rush and one-size-fits-all
In order to promote the "double carbon" work during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, we should pay attention to breaking down the institutional obstacles, breaking through the institutional obstacles and introducing policy innovations, so as to create a good internal and external development environment for accelerating the "double carbon" process.
First, there is pressure to strengthen the top design
After the central government put forward the "double carbon" target, local governments, industries and enterprises responded to the central government's call and set their own "double carbon" target, but they also showed the chaos of their own management and lack of coordination.
China's urbanization and industrialization are still advancing in a deep way, and the task of developing the economy and improving people's livelihood remains heavy. Per capita GDP has just reached US $10,000 and will reach US $20,000 by 2035. All this means that in the process of high-quality economic development, we must promote the realization of the "dual-carbon" goal, and avoid rushing ahead and adopting a one-size-fits-all approach.
Given the large gap in regional and industrial development in China, the "double carbon" work should focus on the overall situation and take the overall account into consideration. The development realities of different regions, different industries and different enterprises should be considered as a whole, and the carbon reduction task should be reasonably formulated, so as to ensure that some industries are under pressure while some regions are under pressure.
The eastern region is the driving force for China's high-quality economic development and undertakes the task of building a world-class innovation platform and growth pole. Accelerating the adjustment of industrial structure and energy structure and taking the lead in achieving the "double carbon" goal is the eastern region's due responsibility as the leader of high-quality development in China.
For the western region will be expected to set aside a certain time and space development, gradient of peak with eastern and central regions, support their play to the advantages of abundant renewable energy, high load can industry transfer through undertaking and central regions, and extending the industrial chain to improve product added value, driving the development of regional economy, high quality, it also helps to ensure the safety of national energy security, industrial chain, the supply chain.
Second, we will improve the industrial structure
China has a huge industrial scale. Although the industrial added value accounted for a continuous decline in recent years, it is still the largest energy consumption sector.
In terms of emissions, direct emissions from industry account for 30% of the country, and electricity and heat used by industry account for 60% to 70%.
Optimizing the industrial structure is an important starting point to achieve the "double carbon" target.
On the one hand, we will move the industrial structure toward the medium-high end, vigorously develop emerging industries of strategic importance, and accelerate the development of modern service industries, new and high-tech industries, and advanced manufacturing.
On the other hand, we will focus on high-energy and high-emission industries, strictly control the increase of production capacity in steel, chemicals, cement, non-ferrous metals and other industries, and increase industrial concentration.
In addition, attention should be paid to the phenomenon of high energy consumption in emerging services such as 5G and big data centers.
Relevant data shows that at present, there are 150,000 data centers in China, which consume more than 160 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, equivalent to the annual power consumption of the whole Shanghai area, which has become a "big tiger" of power consumption. Moreover, 70% of the power supply of these data centers comes from coal power.
Therefore, targeted energy system optimization and energy-saving technology transformation should be carried out for these high-energy consuming emerging service industries, and the comprehensive energy efficiency should be improved through the construction of a nationwide integrated big data center system and the implementation of intelligent scheduling.
At the same time, we should give full play to the advantages of emerging technology companies with advanced green development concepts, encourage them to participate in voluntary trading in the carbon market, and encourage the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain to participate in the "double-carbon" action.
Adjust the energy structure that is more coal-oriented
China's energy structure, coal accounted for as high as 57%, is the highest in all major industrial countries.
The use of coal produces 30 percent more carbon dioxide emissions than oil, 70 percent more than natural gas, and 71.7 percent of the carbon emissions from the energy system.
The energy structure with coal as the main body determines that China will make arduous efforts to achieve the double carbon target.
According to the research institute, to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, the proportion of China's non-fossil energy consumption needs to increase from less than 16% to more than 80%, and the power generation from non-fossil energy needs to increase from 34% to about 90%.
China's energy transformation should continue to advance according to the path of "reducing coal, stabilizing oil, increasing gas and adding new energy".
On the one hand, we will gradually reduce the total consumption of fossil energy.
Strictly control coal power projects, strictly control the growth of coal consumption during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and gradually reduce during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.
We will improve our ability to explore and develop oil and gas resources, ensure stable crude oil production and increased natural gas production, promote the large-scale development of shale oil and gas and other unconventional resources, and increase the supply of oil and gas resources in China.
On the other hand, we will significantly increase the proportion of new energy consumption.
We will establish a new type of power system that meets the requirements of large-scale and high-proportion grid connection of wind power, photovoltaic and other new energy sources, change the operation mode of the power grid, and realize the organic interconnection of source, grid, load and storage, and the two-way interaction between supply and demand.
In accordance with the principles of separation of power transmission and distribution, distribution and distribution, separation of main and auxiliary, and independence of dispatching, the reform of the power system will be steadily promoted, the power sales function of the grid will be gradually removed, independent power trading centers and dispatching centers will be established, the scale of regional and inter-provincial power trading will be expanded, and market-oriented auxiliary power service mechanisms will be improved.
We will attach importance to the important role of nuclear power as a large-scale and stable clean power source in achieving the "dual carbon" goal, and actively yet prudently promote the development of nuclear power.
Fourth, attach importance to the key role of energy conservation and energy efficiency
In recent years, China has made great progress in energy conservation and energy efficiency improvement.
Since 2012, energy consumption per unit of GDP has been reduced by 24.4 percent, and an average annual growth of 2.8 percent in energy consumption has supported an average annual growth of 7 percent in the national economy.
However, overall energy use is still extensive, with energy intensity 1.5 times that of the world average and 2-3 times that of developed countries. There is still a long way to go to build a green and low-carbon economic system.
Energy conservation and energy efficiency is the cheapest way to achieve the "dual carbon" goal, and we need to vigorously promote a comprehensive conservation strategy.
On the one hand, we should continue to give full play to the role of the "double control" system of energy consumption, strictly control energy intensity and scientifically control total amount, and take energy intensity and carbon intensity as important indicators to measure high-quality development in a region.
In the future, trading markets for energy use rights and carbon emission rights should play their role, giving local governments and enterprises more autonomy in the process of saving energy, improving efficiency and reducing carbon emissions.
On the other hand, we need to attach great importance to improving the efficiency of end-use energy, carry out in-depth decarbonization technology demonstrations in the industrial, construction and transportation sectors, improve the market-based mechanism for energy conservation and efficiency, and increase the enthusiasm of energy use departments in reducing carbon emissions.
Fifth, accelerate the establishment of a diversified market system
To achieve the "double carbon" goal, the market must play a better role. By transforming the positive externalities of zero-carbon energy into economic benefits, micro-entities should be fully mobilized to participate in the initiative.
On the one hand, we should speed up the construction of a power market system with multiple participants, reasonable value representation and active market transactions, which is the necessary support for the construction of a new power system with new energy as the main body.
At the same time, we should give full play to the role of green card trading market, strengthen the connection with the rules of the national carbon market, so that the green card system can truly become an important guarantee to enhance the consumption of renewable energy.
On the other hand, with the launch of online trading in the national carbon market, other key emission industries other than the power industry should be included in the scope of carbon market trading as soon as possible, so as to form a relatively reasonable carbon price, have a decisive impact on investment decisions and credit evaluation standards, and attract all kinds of capital to flow into green and low-carbon industries.
VI. Promoting the vigorous development of green and low-carbon technologies and the continuous emergence of new forms of business
The future of carbon neutrality must rely on technological innovation and major technological breakthroughs.
The key technologies to achieve carbon neutrality can be divided into three levels. The first is electrification technology, which is an important direction of terminal energy consumption. Therefore, efforts should be made to tackle key problems such as smart grid and energy storage technology that adapt to a high proportion of renewable energy, and vigorously develop electric vehicles.
Secondly, deep decarbonization can be achieved through new fuel substitution in areas that cannot be electrified. Among them, green hydrogen energy, biomass energy, ammonia energy and other energy will be difficult to decarbonize in industry, transportation and construction to achieve the replacement of fossil energy.
Third, carbon negative technologies, including carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), biomass energy carbon capture and storage (BECCS), etc., ultimately achieve the goal of carbon neutrality.
In the 14th Five-Year Plan, we will strengthen institutional reform and innovation, give full play to the advantages of the new national system, and create a favorable institutional environment for the vigorous development of green and low-carbon technologies and the continuous emergence of new forms of business.
Seventh, strengthen international cooperation and the formulation of rules and standards in the "double-carbon" area
Addressing climate change and promoting green and low-carbon development is an area where consensus can be easily reached and an important topic for China to carry out international cooperation.
Although the time span of China's commitment to "double carbon" is much shorter than that of developed countries, it is still necessary to be vigilant that developed countries, by leading the formulation of international rules, will "pace" the global green and low-carbon development, which will put pressure on China and worsen the external development environment of China.
China and the United States recently issued a joint statement on tackling the climate crisis, reaching consensus on strengthening cooperation between the two countries in the near and future.
On this basis, we can put forward nuclear energy as an important area of cooperation between China and the United States in response to climate change in due time, and jointly study and discuss the role of nuclear energy in achieving carbon neutrality in both countries and the world as well as the space for future cooperation.
We should attach great importance to the far-reaching impact that the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CPAM) proposed by the EU and others may have on global industrial competition and international trade pattern. We should consider building a mutually recognized carbon accounting system through consultation with the EU and strive for the initiative in response.
Against the backdrop of the global consensus on carbon neutrality, China needs to be more determined to build a green Silk Road, strengthen cooperation in clean energy investment, and continue to promote high-quality joint construction of One Belt And One Road.
At the same time, we will pay close attention to relevant developments in international climate governance, adhere to the position of a developing country, adhere to the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, actively participate in the formulation of relevant international standards and rules, and safeguard China's development rights and interests.
In the near future, professional forces should be organized to deeply participate in the development of international ESG (environmental, social and corporate governance) standards, and actively take actions to avoid being subject to others.
Source: Carbon Neutralization Committee of China Energy Conservation Association
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