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Regeneration PET: "Gold nine silver ten" is disappearing or delayed?
2021-08-31

In the traditional sense, the peak season of "Gold nine silver ten" is coming, and the peak season of reclaimed PET maximum downstream reclaimed chemical fiber determines the demand for reclaimed bottle flakes.

At present, it is approaching the end of August, and the weather is getting cool, but the price of reclaimed PET tri-color brick and cold water blue and white piece is not rising but falling.

Sporadic outbreaks continue to be a drag on downstream demand.

Under special circumstances this year, the regeneration market in September is up or down, and the mentality of businesses in the industry may be difficult to reach an agreement.




In fact, the demand theory of the peak season, and the actual market trend is not completely unified.

Moreover, the economic situation at home and abroad is complex and changeable this year, and the prosperity degree of the regeneration industry is significantly lower than the level of the same period last year, showing the situation of low peak season and weak off-season, and the boundary between low and peak seasons is blurred.

The textile industry has "the seven died eight back nine", in autumn and winter clothing increased dosage of chemical fiber products, secondly export-oriented textile, orders need to delivery before Christmas, majority is the end of November, but this year by the rising sea freight, container, under the influence of tension part of Europe and the United States Christmas orders have been issued three to four months in advance.

So September and October theoretical market demand increases, but the actual market trend or biased.




The proportion of export and domestic sales of China's end textile market is about 3:7, but since 2019, with the impact of the escalating economic and trade friction, as well as the decline of domestic and foreign consumption power under the shadow of public health events, China's textile orders shrank significantly last year, and even worse this year.

Xiaobian summarized the following viewpoints after investigating packaging stations, cleaning plants and recycled chemical fiber plants in the industry:




1, packaging station: sell at low prices, moderately stock up




At present, because the purchase price of the net brick is still hovering at a low level, the packing station has a more positive intention to stock up, and tends to carry out cash transactions. The intention to control the sale of goods pushes back the cleaning factory to adjust the purchase price.

According to the size of packaging stations, the inventory of bottle bricks varies from 3000-5000 tons. Some larger packaging stations plan to stock up in September and ship after October.

Taking Guangdong packaging station as an example, the cost of packing the clean brick is about 1000 yuan/ton, and the price of the raw bottle is 2600 yuan/ton, and the profit is meagre or even upside down. Under the background, the packing station prefers to pack the raw bottle into chemical fiber material (blue and white brick mixed with oil can), or directly break and clean the raw bottle into cold water blue and white sheet, and the cost is around 700-800 yuan/ton.

At present, the market transaction price of cold water blue and white piece is 3600 yuan/ton, and the profit margin is 200-300 yuan/ton, which is also the overall amount of net bottle brick in the industry is not well-off.




2, cleaning factory: mentality differences, cautious game




At present, the reclaimed PET bottle chip cleaning factory is divided on whether the market is up or down in September and October, and the purchase is not easy is still the recent market normal.

On the one hand, it is worried that the upcoming autumn and winter season can not maintain production due to lack of stock, on the other hand, it is worried that the demand follow-up is insufficient, and too much material hoarding will cause greater financial pressure.




Bullish side for the autumn and winter season have stocking plans for manufacturers, the industry accounted for about 65%.

They think the current industry business inventories are limited, and this year the overall consumer weakness, even supply season bottle brick bottle is less than level than the same period in previous years, the other with the weather gets colder, the bottle of the traditional peak season about MAO have a month of time, if the stock at the moment not to stock up, qiu dong season purchasing difficulty will increase further, and even affect the normal production,

Therefore, in September, there may be a dark increase in the purchasing price of the cleaning plant, but the range may be limited. The fluctuation range is expected to be 100-200 yuan/ton.




Bearish or steady side for the use of the attitude of manufacturers, the industry accounted for about 35%.

They think there should be a mini-spike in demand downstream in September and October, but are not sure how long it will last.

However, the weak downstream demand will continue to drag down the recycled PET market, and some terminal orders have been placed and delivered in advance, which will to some extent limit the weaving enterprises' acceptance of new orders. Therefore, the bearish attitude for the fourth quarter is not reduced, and there is no obvious stock plan under the risk-averse attitude.




3. Recycled chemical fiber factory: Stock up on the right amount and wait and see what happens




In the middle and late August, zhejiang Huatong chemical fiber as the representative of the recycling hollow enterprises in the digestion of a wave of inventory capital recovery, the purchase price of raw bricks and cold water sheet 100-200 yuan/ton, but most chemical fiber factories said that shipment is not easy, the mentality of the narrow adjustment of the quotation has a limited impact on the market, the market mentality is still mostly wait-and-see attitude.




Whole, small make up recommend you for this year's "golden nine silver ten" rationality, in September the domestic renewable PET small or large market moves, stalemate operation is given priority to, GeChang or according to their own production and inventory situation slightly adjust the purchase price, expected in 100-200 yuan/ton, the weak market significant adjustments to contradict mentality increase will inevitably lead to the downstream customers,

Thus may fall into the bad cycle of price war again.

In October, it is suggested to pay more attention to the recovery of domestic and foreign trade orders, and the transmission of terminal downstream inventory, and there is no lack of small price exploration opportunities.



Source: Longzhong Information


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