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The scale of the degradable market may exceed 80 billion yuan, is the market demand really so big?
High price of degradable materials, when to "downhill"?
What will the market look like in 2022?
2021 a paper "ban plastic order" after, from supermarket shopping bag, fast-food box, drink straw to agricultural plastic film...... Plastic products using biodegradable materials are becoming more and more common in our daily life.
According to reliable statistics, in the next five years, the demand for degradable plastics in China can reach 2.38 million tons, with a market size of 47.7 billion yuan, an increase of more than 30 times than the current market demand; By 2030, the demand for plastic will reach 4.28 million tons, with a market size of 85.5 billion yuan.
Recently, a number of listed companies announced to increase the number of degradable materials, including tens of billions of investment. Among a-share companies, jinfa Technology, Jindan Technology, Hengli Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Huafeng Chemical, Tongcheng New materials, Yifan Pharmaceutical, Ruifeng Gaosai, Guen Shares and many other companies have laid out their business in the field of degradable materials.
In addition, crossover has become a new trend. Leading enterprises outside the industry have begun to seize the "golden track", forming the trend of "you catch up with me", transforming and upgrading towards the degradable field, and their capacity will be released in succession this year and next year.
PBAT: Hold up half the sky for biodegradation
The popularity of PBAT is mainly due to its price and application. First of all, in terms of price, PBAT is influenced by upstream material BDO. Since February 2021, BDO has been on a tear, even rising as high as 3000 yuan/ton per day. At present, Xinjiang Wangjinglong, Jinfa Technology, Changhong High-tech, Sanfangxiang, Daoen Shares, Hengli Petrochemical and other enterprises have layout expansion, with annual production capacity of more than 100,000 tons.
Among them, Xinjiang Wangjinglong has invested about 30 billion yuan to build a PBAT industry chain project with an annual output of 1.3 million tons. After completion of the project, the annual output value is expected to reach 32.4 billion yuan, with profits and taxes of about 9 billion yuan and more than 3,000 new jobs. Jinfa technology will accelerate the construction of an additional 240,000 tons PBAT unit (60,000 tons per unit), of which the first 60,000 tons PBAT unit has been successfully put into production in the first quarter of 2021. Hengli Petrochemical has a total investment of 1.8 billion yuan, including 300,000 tons/year PBAT biodegradable plastics project.
PLA: The application market has the greatest development potential
PLA is the most industrialized, most productive and most widely used biodegradable plastic in the world at present. It conforms to the current "carbon cycle balance" trend, can fully reduce white pollution, save oil resources. At present, PLA's production capacity is mainly concentrated overseas, while China is still in its infancy. There are only a few production lines that have been built and put into operation, and most of them are of small scale. However, the industry concentration of capacity under construction is high and the competition pattern is good.
At present, PLA enterprises not only have abundant funds, technical deposits and support, but also grasp the new lifeblood and new direction of industry development. In the first half of 2021, Huitong Will invest A total of 8.6 billion yuan to build a project with an annual output of 300,000 tons of PLA. Bbca group, with an investment of 4.88 billion yuan, will construct six projects with an annual output of 500,000 tons of lactic acid and 300,000 tons of polylactic acid according to modular engineering.
PBS: More than 2 million tons of new projects will be announced in 2021
PBS is the material with the best processing performance of degradable plastics. It has good heat resistance, and the thermal deformation temperature is close to 100℃. After modification, the service temperature is close to 100℃, which overcomes the shortcoming of low heat resistance temperature of other biodegradable plastics. PBS degrades only in compost, water and other contact conditions with specific microorganisms, and its performance is very stable in normal storage and use.
Relying on the world-class German Brucnera membrane process and hengli's own polyester synthesis technology, Comforter New Material has successfully signed a 900,000-ton/year PBS biodegradable plastic project in 2021, which is the largest project with the highest production capacity in China at present. Among them, the 450,000 ton/year biodegradable new material project has started construction. It is expected to be put into production in the middle of next year (the specific production time shall be subject to actual construction).
BDO: Prices hit a ten-year high
As one of the main raw materials of PBAT, BDO has benefited from three factors: indirect pull of spandex, rapid expansion of degradable plastics industry and supply-side force. The price of BDO has risen from 7,500 yuan/ton to 31,000 yuan/ton in half a year, and its profit has increased by more than ten times. A number of BDO projects have already started planning and construction, and the popularity will continue to rise in 2021-2022. If the government takes the lead, rationality will gradually return.
Hengli Energy, Junzheng Group and Sanwei New Material have invested 20.8 billion yuan, 20.7 billion yuan and 13.066 million yuan respectively, with a total capacity of 1.8 million tons, 1.2 million tons and 900,000 tons.
PGA: aristocrats in all Biodegradable Materials
Compared with the current mainstream market promotion of PBAT, PLA and other degradable plastics, THE current price of PGA is relatively high, its market supply is small. Although it has excellent properties such as high mechanical strength and high barrier, it still faces problems such as short shelf life, difficult processing and high density in the current process of processing and use, which needs further development.
At present, PGA enterprises not only have abundant funds, technical deposits and support, but also hold the new lifeblood and new direction of industry development. Among them, Jindan technology and Jinfa Technology began to lay out their layout in the field of industrialized PGA several years ago, and Sinopec has a construction plan of 500,000 tons PGA in Guiyang.
In addition, PCL with simple synthesis process, low cost and good hydrophobicity, and PHA used in disposable tableware, non-woven fabrics, packaging materials and other new materials will gradually shine in the future market.
Future development direction of plastics: green, low carbon and recycling
In the new era, the market share of traditional plastics is gradually decreasing, with big competition and little profit. The development direction of plastics in the future lies in green (such as degradable plastics), low carbon (energy saving and consumption reduction) and circulation. Enterprises should actively act as, otherwise they will be eliminated.
Many entrepreneurs also said that transformation and upgrading is the only way for enterprises to survive. How to turn? The market for biodegradable materials is a good place to look. If enterprises can catch up with this wave of dividends and make plans in advance, they will to a great extent help themselves to turn the crisis into an opportunity, turn the pressure into a driving force, reverse the current situation and usher in new economic growth points.
However, in this process, it should be noted that according to the current investment pace of major enterprises, the future market space will continue to expand, if the demand can not keep up with the investment, then there will be a large probability of overcapacity, which is very adverse to the development of the industry. At the same time, on the other hand, we should also be alert to enterprises, not simply "rush on", and should be more cautious when choosing investment.
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